Brent Colton is a retired CIA operations officer now in the employ of the Creighton Corporation, a privately owned think tank that advocates various opinions on world issues, but it’s his clandestine job to solve the dirty problems for their private clients for a million dollar fee with no questions asked. When recovering stolen technology from a Vietnamese industrialist, Colton obtains evidence that he secretly partnered with a U.S. Senatorto rig the recent presidential election and elect him to the nation’s highest office.

CHINA: AMERICA’S NEXT MILITARY OPPONENT?
by Terry Heath, 2006

Chinese President Hu Jintao has just visited Washington and brought warm regards to all of the politicians there on behalf of the 200 billion or so dollars we Americans left behind in that Asian country in last year’s trade imbalance. And despite being heckled by a woman protesting China’s human rights violations at a White House greeting ceremony it would seem that Hu and President George W. Bush seemed very civil in their talks on the mutual concerns of both nations.

So should we worry about the potential of being at war with China within the next decade?

Beijing is to host the next edition of the Summer Olympics in 2008 so we can presume their Communist controlled government leaders will be on their best behavior regarding their actions on global affairs these next two years to make sure they have one of the most successful competitive games ever. But, once those amateur athletic contests are over and the attention of the world focuses on other matters, should we expect China’s military will finally fulfill its long-term goal of invading their neighbor island of Taiwan to re-claim that ‘renegade province’ and make it a permanent part of the people’s republic?

China’s economy is booming and its trade surplus with the United States is staggering and keeps increasing in their favor every year. The Beijing government is then taking their surplus cash from our imports of their goods to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds that help fund our deficit in what we must assume is an obvious attempt by their leaders to influence American economic and foreign policy in how we respond with that Asian behemoth. So what happens when relations between the two nations sour once the vested military and political interests of one becomes more important than economic convenience?

Is it inevitable the United States will go to war with China to determine who controls the destiny of Asia for the 21st Century and beyond? Many Americans are expecting such a conflict to occur and are attempting to warn us of that impending cataclysm with a nation that has four times more citizens than us.

Ted Galen Carpenter is a vice-president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute think tank in Washington, D.C. and has written a new book called ‘America’s Coming War with China.’ He argues in the provocative tome that America’s continued friendship with Taiwan could be the catalyst for eventual war with the mainland and bring disastrous consequences to all parties involved.

He opens the book with a fictionalized scenario taking place in 2013 in which Taiwan declares itself an independent nation and wishes to separate itself from China’s influence. Beijing obviously opposes such a brazen move and begins mobilizing its military to invade the island to crush its perceived rebellion by those living there.

The fictional American president sends two naval carrier groups to that part of the Pacific Ocean to force China to back down from its hostile intent against their island cousins. But, predictably, a shooting war between the two superpowers breaks out with a heavy loss of life on both sides.

Thousands are killed in a few weeks of battles before an uneasy truce is reached. But relations between America and China remain distant for decades to come in this fictional narrative by Carpenter.

Will such a conflict ever take place between these two giants? It possibly can, but would probably have a quick resolution considering the destructive nature of today’s modern weaponry. It’s obvious we would never invade China if a shooting war develops and they could never do the same to us, based on current military logistics. However, one must presume that if conflict erupts between the two sides it would be solely an air and naval war because we won’t have the time to raise the millions of soldiers needed for a land invasion.

If the tensions are not reduced within a few days of those initial skirmishes then a limited nuclear weapons exchange between both countries would most likely occur, with each side targeting the major cities of their opponent for destruction in a game of wills to see who would give up first.

Where would such a conflagration between China and us leave Taiwan? Probably destroyed, either by invasion by thousands of mainland troops or devastation by weapons of mass destruction coming from the east as punishment for their attempted breakaway.

What would be the aftermath of such a war? Complete economic ruin on both sides for a minimum of twenty-five years and a worldwide depression for at least a decade while the two nations try to rebuild the infrastructure and re-populate their citizenry. So can we avoid it?

We battled the Chinese for three years during the Korean War in a stalemate and General Douglas MacArthur warned then President-elect John Kennedy before he assumed office to never put this country into another unwinnable Asian land war which he and his successor Lyndon Johnson did not heed and got us into the debacle known as Vietnam with China funneling weapons to their Asian cousins as their proxy in this Cold War battle. Yet that was not the only time we went up against them in a potential global conflict.

A portion of the 1960 presidential election debates between Kennedy and Richard Nixon included a discussion over the Chinese coastal islands of Quemoy and Matsu that was then occupied by troops of Taiwan. That incident is now forgotten by our leaders but is important to the historical relations we have with China since we and them almost went to nuclear war twice over those insignificant pieces of land in 1954 and 1958 in defense of Taiwan. We may not remember those incidents but you can be assured that the Chinese haven’t.

Nixon went to China in 1972 to begin the normalization process with Beijing so we could drive a wedge between the Chinese and their pals in the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 it left the communist leaders in Tiananmen Square in a panic over their ally’s quick dissolution from a socialist state to a democracy. So they attempted to build up a capitalist system under communist control so they wouldn’t lose their own grip on their citizens while enjoying their economic successes and increasing influence on world events.

George H.W. Bush was president in 1989 during the Tiananmen Square crackdown and massacre of pro-democracy students by the Chinese military under the direction of the elderly communist hierarchy but the only thing he did in response was develop a plan to keep the economic ‘status quo’ with Beijing and a willingness to overlook their government’s crimes against their own citizens as long as we kept getting the cheap goods our citizens demand.

That’s the problem we still face because we weren’t tough then when we had the upper economic hand. Our government leaders and big business promoters want that same status quo of economic convenience and ignoring China’s continued crackdown on democracy to remain U.S. policy when it’s apparent they will eventually make their move to reclaim what they believe is their property. An island nation that has remained one of our most loyal friends but to whom the Chinese believe is in their sphere of influence. They are planning to take Taiwan back because we have shown too much weakness these last few years and would presumably stand down to such an invasion since that dispute would be a half-world away from the ignorant American consumer.

But, at some point in our near future, we are going to have to clash with China, military or economically, over the sovereignty and potential independent status of Taiwan. So will it be sooner while we are still the more powerful or later when we’re the obvious weaker of the two sides?

Terry Heath California E-Mail readermail@terryheathbooks.com